ISSUE: #66, December 2015
The Longbrake Letter
- Bill Longbrake
In this month's letter, Bill Longbrake provides a final assessment of observations he made a year ago about how the U.S. and global economies might fare in 2015. He got some things right and many things wrong. The U.S. and global economies are dynamic and ever changing. Some trends are foreseeable. But, governmental policy intervention, whether it be political or economic, can alter outcomes and set in motion feedbacks that significantly affect economic developments. In this respect, 2015 was no different from any previous year. Such will also be the case in 2016. Nonetheless, Bill summarizes key U.S. and global economic developments that seem possible, perhaps likely, in 2016.
The Longbrake Letter - Long-Run U.S. Economic Outlook—Scenarios
- Bill Longbrake
In this month's letter, in a series of tables, charts and commentary, Bill Longbrake provides long-term forecasts for 15 U.S. economic indicators for the period from 2016 through 2023. Bill shares the view of many that potential inflation-adjusted growth will languish in the vicinity of 2 percent. However, he expresses skepticism about the consensus view that inflation will rise to 2 percent over the next three years and explains why inflation might remain very low in the near term and take much longer to rise to 2 percent. Bill's inflation view, if correct, has significant implications for forecasts of many other economic indicators.
Predictions for 2016
- Bob Barnett
Here are predictions for developments in financial services during the upcoming year, ranging from government officials moving to the private sector to the impinging of new techniques and lifestyles on traditional forms of service.
Converting the CSP into an Industry-Owned Utility
- Jim Sivon
This article makes a case for converting the Common Securitization Platform into an industry-owned utility.