Editor's Note: This is a monthly publication on economic trends and financial policy issues. In this publication you can read "The Longbrake Letter", an analysis of economic trends and conditions written by Bill Longbrake, as well as commentary on financial regulation and policy written by members of the law firm Barnett, Sivon & Natter, P.C., a Washington, DC based law firm that specializes in financial services law.

ISSUE: #44, December 2013

The Longbrake Letter
- Bill Longbrake
In this month's letter, Bill Longbrake summarizes the economic outlook for the U.S. in 2014, which should be better, and discusses the risks, both positive and negative, that could impact the U.S. and global economies. He discusses Larry Summers' secular stagnation speech and explains why U.S. real GDP is likely to continue to fall short of the historical trend level and why growth rates are likely to be disappointing. In the remainder of this month's letter, Bill analyzes recent U.S. economic developments and examines future prospects for Europe (poor), China (good) and Japan (poor).

2013 Forecast Assessment and 2014 Outlook
-Bill Longbrake
This supplement to the December Longbrake Letter includes a final assessment of the observations and forecasts Bill Longbrake made about the outlook for 2013. It also contains Bill's observations and forecasts for the U.S. and the rest of the world for 2014 and lists potential risks, both favorable and unfavorable, to the 2014 outlook.

What Happens if a Mortgage is Not a QM Loan
- Ray Natter
The QM rule goes into effect on January 10. This article explains the potential risks created by non-QM mortgages for lenders and assignees.

A Few Unresolved Issues
- Bob Barnett
The effort expended during the past two years on regulation processing has left other issues somewhat less attended. Here are a few that are still with us; they are apt to be for some time.